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Forex: Robots Vs. Humans, Automated Trading Vs. Manual Trading

The Foreign currency Exchange (FOREX) market is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world. The average daily trade in the global FOREX markets exceeds US.9 trillion (Source: the Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in April 2004, and published in March 2005). These huge funds are traded by governments, banks, and large institutions. For comparison, the biggest stock market on the Earth – NYSE Group (The New York Stock Exchange), has a daily trading volume of approximately .8 billion (Source: NYSE Group, Inc. 2006). FOREX has a 18.4% average growth rate per year since 1989. It offers trading 24 hours a day, five days a week, non-stop over Internet. This kind of massively liquid and long uninterrupted trading hours mean that under normal conditions there is no problem entering or exiting a trade.

But, in this huge market, as the story goes, at least 90% of new FOREX traders lose all their money within their first 3 months of trading. Why? Most losing traders who inquire about FOREX trading are quite intelligent, they just lack the right tools, the “Secret Weapons” to win. They are not beaten by other traders, they simply are beaten by themselves, by humans’ weaknesses.

Talking about humans’ weaknesses, let us list some as follows:

1. What is the first big weakness of human beings? if I say it should be “greed”, is there anybody will disagree? Many times we have got 1% profit, but we feel it is not fat enough. We want more, 2% or 3% will be better. While the profit really goes to 3%, we will think how about 10%? Not enough forever. But the market is so volatile, especially in Forex market, we often encounter this depressive situation: profit turns into negative from positive. and this kind of depression happens again and again.

2. Fear. All people have fear. In Forex trading, currency rate is easily jumping or dropping hundreds of pips. Few of people can make sure how the market will go. In Forex market, people all use leverage to trade, from 50:1 to 500:1, leverage will enlarge the profit or loss from 50 times to 500 times. Leverage is the wonderful feature of Forex, and it lead fear into people’s heart too. If the market goes against people, big drawdown comes, their fear comes too. Is there anybody not scary to lose money? Under the pressure of fear, people easily and often make wrong decisions, stop loss too early, then regret soon.

3. Lack of confidence. Seems better than fear, huh? But it is still not a good thing. Many times human traders are so happy once they see a little bit profit in their accounts. They are worrying what if the profit turns into loss? People always take a tiny profit and run, then regret while they see the market goes further and further along the right track. If they were confident, they would have made ten times or even a hundred times of profit.

4. Hesitation. Not only newbies, but also old-hands easily hesitate to act in Forex market. You’ve probably heard the saying “past performance does not predict future performance”. Even a very experienced trader who has made many successful trades in his/her history, while he or she is facing a new situation, needs thinking twice before making a so simple decision: Buy or Sell? For new traders or amateurs, they need longer time to think, and this kind of hesitation always leads them to confusion and missing the best and fleeting chance.

5. Weariness. How many people can keep working for 24 hours? No sleep, no rest? How about 48 hours, 72 hours, etc? Even an iron man can not use his eyes watching computer monitor, his brain thinking fast changing questions and his hands calculating complex formulas, day and night, 24 hours a day, 6 days a week, non stop. Especially, no mistakes allowed!

Nobody can!

None!

No doubt!

Don’t mention the Super Man. He has weariness too.

6. Negligence. Have you ever got trouble just because of a small negligence? such as took a wrong bus, missed an exit on highway, dialed a wrong number, misunderstood boss’ order, ignored a no-parking sign, omitted a whole page of questions in an examination, left resume at home while a vital interview, misspelled a keyword in a quote form for a VIP customer, etc. Hi, man, when was the last time you forgot your mama’s birthday, or worse, the wife’s, or the worst, girl friend’s? Mama always forgive your negligence. Wife… well, it depends. Girl friend? Huh, wish you good luck.

But unfortunately, in Forex market, no one will forgive your negligence, even yourself. Any negligence must be punished! You could get a margin call, only pennies left in account, may just because a tiny negligence.

7. Lack of discipline. Humans always think that we are smarter than machines. Sure we are. Not only we are smarter, we have freedom too. But everything has its nature, character, and rules. Rule means discipline. If we just feel smart and free in Forex trading, making decisions based on our feelings or knowledge only, and ignore discipline, there will be endless disasters waiting us ahead. Forex trading is like fighting in war, soldiers can not survive in war without discipline, neither can traders in Forex market. While we have to stop loss we must cut off and run, in spite of how bloody and painful it is, when we must take profit we can not hate the profit is too small. Discipline is discipline, perhaps some smarties can win a while, but only those people can keep obeying discipline forever can win forever.

8. Inconsistency. Long term or short term? buy or sell? prosperity or depression? over bought or over sold? high or low? support level or resistance level? fundamental analysis or technical analysis? including automated trading or manual trading? etc. There are too many inconsistent news, facts, information and methods, strategies in Forex market, easily cause human traders make inconsistent judgments and decisions. And these inconsistencies will cause only one same result: failure!

To overcome these terrible weaknesses of humans, people have developed many methods. One of them is called “Automated Trading”. Automated (or Automatic) Forex Trading means to trade Forex (Foreign Currencies) using some trading systems, programs, software or robots (on Metatrader MT4 platform it is called as Expert Advisors – EA), without needing a human to physically trade. An automated trading system is a group of specific rules and parameters, governing entry and exit points, having the ability to both generate signals and execute trades automatically. An EA is an automated trading “robot”. Robots can beat human beings at chess games, EA robots can beat humans at FOREX trading also.

Programmers consider many components synthesize while they are developing an automated trading system or EA robot, including: Nature of Market, Math Modeling, Time Frame, Entry and Exit Signals, Stop Loss Trigger, and Profit Target, etc. After the system is created, they do back testing and forward testing rigorously both in demo and live accounts. A fully automatic trading system created like this way is able to analyze the market independently, work completely on its own and constantly generate signals, auto-execute in a trading platform. Alternatively, programmers can design the system as a kind of ‘semi-automated’ whereby users can be alerted when the Entry, Exit, Stop Loss or Take Profit trigger occurs. Alerts can be audible through computer, sent to E-mail address or even sent as a message to cell phone. Once the user confirms, the robot will obey the order to finish the trade.

There are many advantages in Automated Forex Trading, such as:

1. Automated trading is executed by computer. Today, computer science and information technology have been developed to a very high level. Computer can perform calculations thousands of times faster than humans, workout logical computations without error and store memory at incredible speeds with flawless accuracy.

2. Taking the emotion out of trading. Unlike humans, an automated trading system will never be misguided by greed, fear, hesitation, and inconsistency. It just trade mechanically (but fully programmable), unaffected by a trader’s psychology. It performs based on the set criteria and disciplines. Obviously, this reduces the risk of panic trading.

3. Automated trading can take trades day and night, non-stop, no weariness and negligence. EA robots free their owners of the necessity of sticking in front of the computer at all times. Once an effective system is developed and optimized, it can be left to run full automatically and independently. A successful automated trading EA robot will allow its owner to focus on optimizing strategies and money management rules rather than having to constantly watch the market.

4. Computer can run multiple programs simultaneously, so we can use automatic trading EA robots to take multiple trades synchronously. That means we can include multiple conditional entries and exits, profit targets, protective stops, trailing stops, and more in our strategies, and have them all automated at the same time. This powerful function can help us to maximize our return of investment, and reduce risk.

5. For day traders or other short term trading fans, automated trading robots are very helpful tools to deal with high frequency of trades using tick data. Day trading keeps traders exposed in market very shortly, so sometimes it is safer than long term trading, but it is really difficult for a human to handle. However, for automated trading EA robots , it is just a piece of cake.

6. No matter long or short term trading, Forex market always is volatile and waves fast, only automated trading can afford faster identification of signals and reaction to them. No doubt, computers will typically beat human beings in the speed of identifying a trading signal and the entry and execution of the corresponding orders. No more missing a trading opportunity.

Automated trading is not perfect yet, and EA robots can not think instead of humans. If the programmer’s skills are at a low level, or the strategy idea is untenable or nonlogical, the corresponding product will not succeed. However, the practical experience shows that a high quality automated trading system always guaranties some kind of financial success for its owner working on Forex market. The latest fact is: in the Automated Trading Championship 2007, a world competition, all participants use EA robots, the champion won 1204.75% profit, the runner-up won 450.42%, and the third place won 299.45%, just within 12 weeks.

Isn’t that amazing?

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Automated Trading Systems for Financial Markets and Recommendations for Their Usage

1. Introductions

Today, using information and trading platforms has become a de facto requirement for successful trading in the financial markets. Their advantages as compared to conventional trading schemes include, for example, an unprecedented speed of processing and delivery of information to end users, the level of integration with data providers, and a wide array of built-in technical analysis instruments.

At the same time, an investor opening an account with a brokerage firm simply cannot simultaneously manage the real-time analysis and trade in more than 4-6 financial instruments in several markets 24 hours 7 days a week. This brings about the need to employ automatic trading systems in the form of runtime environment with client and server parts and the programs to control these systems (scripts).
2. Comparative Analysis of the Problem Area

Various software components embrace the entire target sector of the market—from analytics and forecasting to complex trade and administration. The components of a trading platform provide its clients—brokers, dealers, traders, financial analysts and advisors—just the service they need at the very moment they need it, from immediate round-the-clock access to information of concern by means of mobile devices, to multi-move trading operations in the major client terminal.

The software market offers a great many of information and trading platforms that differ, first of all, in the functionality of the client and server parts, and the list of services provided by the financial company once an account has been opened. However, only a relatively small number of software solutions include the components that automate trading.
2.1. MetaTrader4-based Solutions

One of the world’s most widely used trade platform products is apparently MetaTrader4, developed by MetaQuotes Software CorporatVon for Forex market trading. The platform includes an integrated development environment (IDE) MetaEdVtor, intended for writing scripts in a programming language called MetaQuotes Language, or MQL4 for short. The language’s syntax is based on the classic C language syntax, and the flow logic has not been significantly changed since the previous version of the platform that used MQL II as the programming language.

The new automated trade framework is, undoubtedly, an evolution of the previous one. Both languages feature good functionality, with an optimum set of built-in trading and utility functions which is quite sufficient to implement the basic operations, and a facility to define custom functions to help implement non-standard ideas.

From the programming point of view, MQL4 is much more convenient that its predecessor; this language is more oriented at professional programmers, while� MQL II, in my opinion, will rather suit financial experts wishing to build trading programs (or trading advisors, in the MetaQuotes terminology) of their own.
2.2. Omega Research-based Solutions

In the New World, the vast majority of companies use the Omega Research platform developed by TradeStation Securities, Inc. This platform has long ago proven its worth at the worldwide market, and to date experts consider it to be the best system for technical analysis. The provided IDE called Omega Research PowerEditor is intended to create control programs in EasyLanguage (EL).

The language’s major advantage that strikes the eye is the easiness (hence is the name) of placing opening and closing orders. The corresponding program instructions can be written such as if we were formulating an order to our broker in the plain human language. In MQL4, for example, placing an order to open a position would involve specifying about a dozen of various parameters. In EasyLanguage, the same can be expressed in a short statement using a few words. Working with technical indicators is about that simple, too. But don’t fall under an illusion: when creating these simple commands, language developers sacrificed the functionality and limited the possible ways of using a particular function, therefore effectively depriving the IDE users of the opportunity to accurately implement their own algorithms.

TradeStation decided not to create extensive libraries of built-in trading and utility functions but to limit to only an essential set. As the platform advanced, the number of functions written by both in-house and third-party developers grew, and TradeStation simply included them as user-defined functions into the repository of its scripts. As a result, the functionality offered to users is not in the least scarcer than that of MetaQuotes product.

PowerEditor provides a built-in dictionary that lets user search and get help on the available functions. Another handy tool worth mentioning is the strategy builder. Using the strategy builder, the user can easily create a basic algorithm for his or her trading program, and then modify and adjust it as necessary.

EasyLanguage is an old-timer and pioneer in the field of creating automated trading systems for the stock market. It was the basis for the development of MQL II. EasyLanguage will be a good choice for programmers, but still a better one for financial experts more oriented at analyzing the market than trading.
2.3. ProTrader-based Solutions

Professional financial experts can choose the ProTrader2 or ProTraderFX platform as their working tool, depending on the type of the financial market—stock or Forex, respectively. The two platforms are developed and supported by PFSoft LLC. While featuring the specially developed ProTrader Language (PTL), the provided IDE named PTL Builder offers also the opportunity to create scripts in MQLII, MQL4 and EasyLanguage. For this, the text of the program is translated to a language-independent code. Therefore, at runtime it does not matter in which language the script was written. This technology does not only enable creating new scripts, but makes it possible to use freely the entire accumulated collection of scripts that many experienced traders possess.

The main idea put into the new scripting language was to ensure maximum reliability and predictability of the scripts being run. The PTL language is built so as to minimize the possibility of making a mistake in the text of a user’s script—the potentially dangerous points will be detected even before the script is tested or launched.

Regardless of the programming language chosen, the platform works with verified managed code while running the script. This Microsoft-developed technology enables proper handling of errors that cannot be detected before the script is run. This means the program will not fail and will not perform any unwanted operations that might be due to critical errors or damage caused by another program, for which the account holder would eventually have to pay.

The PTL Builder IDE will serve well both financial experts and programmers thanks to its support of different programming languages and provided tools such as tester and debugger.
2.4. Solution Comparison

The above IDEs have their specific feature sets. The table below provides a summary comparison of the capabilities offered by each.

3. Approaches for Creating Automated Trading Systems and Recommendations for Using Them

It hardly needs mentioning that choosing an information and trading platform should be taken with all seriousness. For those who plan to use an automated trading system in their business, below are some points I would recommend considering, based on my personal experience.
3.1. Choosing a Working Environment

First of all, define the type of tasks the automated trading system is to perform. These could be:

Actual trading: opening and closing positions in selected instrument(s).
Secondary support-type functions. These could include placing protective orders, creating and sending out reports of notifications.
Analyzing the market with different technical analysis tools using your own algorithm.

 

Now, after you have studied user comments on the Internet and perhaps consulted your broker, proceed to getting the feel of the products offered. I strongly encourage you not to just have a cursory look, but to test the system for a day of two, thankfully, most of the large companies will let you sign up for a demo account for testing. Pay attention to both the convenience of the IDE and the tools that go with it, and to reliability and security of the control programs created with the IDE.
3.2. Creating a Control Program

If you are planning to create your own scripts, take the time to study the documentation for the programming language and the IDE. Naturally, for an automated trading system to be expertly organized, the scripts should be written by qualified professionals in the field of programming and finance. In case you wish to use one of the classic programs, remember that most of them are of trial, demonstration nature. They are good for testing the automated trading system or to be used as a basis for your own programs, but as self-sustaining, ready-to-use solutions they are of little avail.

If you decide to use programs written by third-party developers, keep in mind that good solutions will have to be paid for. The cost of one innovative strategy varies between 0 and 0, but the price for fine-tuned strategies that use advanced mathematical and economic techniques and especially for winners and runners-up of automated trading championships may exceed ,000.
3.3. Testing Scripts

When using an automated trading system, always test your scripts. The procedure can be as follows:

1. Test the program in a script tester (if such facility is available in your IDE) several times, varying the chart period, the instrument being traded, and the program settings. Try to model the conditions close to the actual state of the market.

2. Test the script in a demo account (if such an opportunity is available). At this stage, it is important to let the program run for a sufficiently long time (it is defined by the period of the chart). Do not stop the test if the program has at once produced a big gain or a big loss. The usefulness of the script can only be estimated after it has worked for a significant amount of time.

3. Run the script in the live account. At this stage, it is not advisable to interfere with the script—for example, close the positions it has opened or modify their settings—or you can upset the internal logic of the program.
3.4. How Not to Fall Prey to Tricks When Choosing a Script

Remember that there are no absolutely perfect advisers. So, do not let them sell you the Brooklyn Bridge—if you had a system that brings in fabulous profits, would you sell it? There is only one advice—a rigorous comprehensive testing will help you get the right impression about the script offered.

Usually, script vendors describe their products with the results of their own testing. In most cases, however, such results are very slanted. Remember that testing should always be performed on several histories, or you can simply adjust to one history fragment and show sky-high results. Based on the NFL theorem, it is fair to say that it is impossible to create a script that would the best of all those existing, in all instruments.

Some professional programmers use sophisticated mathematical tools to endow their programs with artificial intelligence—neural networks, forecasting and evolutionary algorithms are no longer surprising. I would not recommend overestimating such systems—complex forecasting algorithms are very sensitive to errors and parameter settings, while simple schemes are not of much help to the advisor when it comes to generating trade signals, and can only be used to raise the price of the script.
4. Conclusion

In this article, I neither discuss any programming rules for creating the advisors, nor the specifics of writing scripts in a particular language. On these subjects, there are whole books written as well as a number of articles. My aim was to present several points which I think to be quite important but which have not been sufficiently covered in existing publications.

So, are automated trading systems your ally or enemy? When used carefully and without hasty judgments, an automated trading system can facilitate the financial expert’s work and bring in certain profits. But when used incorrectly, incompletely tested, or having settings changed frequently, the automated trading system can lose the money you entrust to it.

Remember that an automated trading system is not going to do your job for you without any effort on your part. Use it to solve your existing problems and not add new ones.
5. References

1. MetaQuotes – developer of MetaTrader, MQL2 and MQL4

2. TradeStation – developers of TradeStation and EasyLanguage

3. PFSoft – developers of ProTraderFX, ProTrader2 and ProTraderLanguage

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